AS campaigning for GE15 enters the last lap, the focus will be on the estimated 4.5 million voters said to be still undecided over their choice of which party should lead the next government.

This is certainly a huge bloc as according to a survey by Ilham Centre, they comprise one-fifth of the entire electorate.

While the report is dated Oct 19 and the number of undecided voters may have since declined, it still provides an indication of voters’ behaviour.

In an interview with over 1,622 respondents, 21% were unsure of which coalition they would prefer with 15% undecided on which party to vote for.

And 28% said they had decided which party to support “but are still open to changing their decision”, while an overwhelming 57% had made up their mind.

It also said there were 36% of more than 7.6 million voters who had no allegiance or obsession to any political party.

This would be your friends or associates who have not bombarded your chat groups with messages or videos from the party they were backing.

Or forward fake messages with warnings of purported cheating, claiming voters had been given allocated time to vote when it merely provided an advisory of “masa digalak mengundi.”

You will be surprised at the number of people who actually believed it and angrily shared this message.

While the impartiality of the Election Commission has been questioned in every general election, the fact is that DAP and PAS have retained their states convincingly for decades and toppled a 60-year-old government in GE14.

The focus of the candidates should be to work on these undecided voters as they have the potential to influence the outcome of GE15.

This pattern is possibly prevalent in constituencies such as Sungai Buloh, a PKR stronghold, but because the charismatic and competent Khairy Jamaluddin is a making a bid, it has made some hardcore Pakatan Harapan supporters re-think.

As an anecdote, I can share my experience as someone who lives in the Sungai Buloh constituency.

I have a neighbour, a Malay professional, who has kept flipping his pick every few days and I do not know if he and his family would vote or finally make a firm decision.

A firm Pakatan supporter, it looks like KJ’s foray has placed him in a dilemma.

According to Merdeka Centre, the highest age group of undecided voters were in the 31-40 bracket, at 34%, while those below 19 and between 41 and 50, were at 19% respectively.

The undecided voters were highest in the urban areas with 62%, and rural at 38%. The Malays were the highest in the undecided category at 50% and Chinese at 36%.

The average undecided voter, overall, works in the private sector (44%); with a household income of between RM2,000 and RM3,900 (29%), and those with a secondary education at 40%.

Interestingly, the young voters, according to Merdeka Centre, also showed that those aged 18-20 were more inclined towards issues, candidates and leadership than party allegiance.

Those in the 21-40 group also reflected a similar pattern, with 31% looking at the choice of contenders rather than party.

This is unlike those aged 40 and above, which put candidates at 34% and party at 25%, and issues at only 12%.

Finally, the most crucial factor is voter turnout. According to Merdeka Centre, as of Oct 28, a positive turnout looks possible but among those aged below 30, the figure is only 68%, a decline from 76% as of July 30.

Among the older voters, aged 50 and above, there was a 80% likelihood to vote, with those aged 31-50 at 74%.

Among young voters aged under 30, the Chinese were the lowest with only 38% wanting to vote in comparison to Malays at 75% and Indians at 72%.

These findings are merely a guide and as with past experiences, there will always be errors. But as an indication, the candidates and campaigners have less than a week to convince these undecided voters.

Even PKR supporters have to decide between Khairy, who has PM potential, or relatively unknown Ramanan.

UNTIL the past 48 hours, media reports on the Sungai Buloh constituency were about the dilemma of PKR supporters on whether they should vote for Khairy Jamaluddin of Barisan Nasional.

Sungai Buloh, which stretches from parts of Subang to the low-cost flats of Kota Damansara and even to the affluent Tropicana, is now the hottest battleground.

One news report even suggested that Barisan has gained the lead with the charismatic Umno candidate’s foray into the constituency.

Without a doubt, KJ, as he is popularly known, has earned his stripes and while Barisan may not be the overwhelming choice in the area, he is acknowledged as a competent and proven candidate.

But the fight has taken a fresh twist with Khairy now declaring that he hopes to be prime minister one day.

Speaking at a rally on Tuesday night, he urged the voters to back him as, “God willing, one day, I want to be your prime minister. But to do that I must first win here.”

As expected, his Pakatan Harapan opponent Datuk R. Ramanan rebutted, saying that even Khairy’s party Umno did not want him as a PM, describing it as “laughable” and that if Barisan wins in GE15, KJ may not even become a minister.

But Khairy has read the sentiments of the voters well because almost all survey findings have placed his name as a possible choice for PM.

He may not rank higher than Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim or Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, but he is there on the list.

In a poll by Ilham Centre, KJ was placed fifth in a list of nine names, with Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahidi Hamidi at the bottom. The 1,622 respondents were from all races.

From a Persatuan Penyelidik Negara and 02 Malaysia poll, the list of 12 choices for PM had Anwar in pole position but KJ was in third spot, just behind Ismail Sabri. Ahmad Zahid was not on the list.

Among young voters, PKR’s Nurul Izzah Anwar was the No. 1 choice for PM at 27%, while Khairy had 24%.

Among Chinese voters, Anwar was the most popular pick and Khairy came in second among the 14 names, according to Huayan Policy Institute and Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies.

Khairy is certainly the man to watch, whatever the pre-nomination day speculation on whether he would run in Rembau, Port Dickson, Kuala Pilah, or, as it turns out, Sungai Buloh.

Khairy, like Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Aziz, who is cutting his teeth on the other well watched battleground of Kuala Selangor, is one of the few younger politicians who are seen as capable technocrats.

Tengku Zafrul was a successful banker before he was asked to give up his lucrative career to steer the country’s economy at the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Khairy, who after the ups and downs of a tumultuous political career over the last two decades, was tasked with helming the Health Ministry at the height of the pandemic, replacing a stuttering start by his predecessor Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba.

By all accounts – even those of his political foes in Pakatan Harapan – Khairy did a remarkable job and Malaysia is ranked among several Asian countries, including South Korea and Singapore, which handled the pandemic and the vaccination rollout better than most, even when compared with developed countries like the United Kingdom and the United States.

If he had been fielded in Kuala Pilah, Rembau or Port Dickson – all in his home state of Negri Sembilan – it would have been an easier passage than the Pakatan stronghold of Sungai Buloh, which was won by PKR’s R. Sivarasa in the last three general elections by increasingly huge margins.

It’s party politics that landed Khairy in Sungai Buloh, but surprisingly, PKR chose to replace Sivarasa with a controversial candidate – Ramanan, a former MIC treasurer-general who had been forced to leave that party under a cloud.

Ramanan, however, is no walkover as he has not pulled his punches despite having to take on a big name.

There have been murmurings of resentment among Pakatan campaigners over Ramanan’s candidacy as he comes with baggage.

A search online will come up with plenty of negative news, but he has taken the trouble to tell the media that his legal issues were a civil matter.

But that has not stopped the media from throwing challenges at him, including questions over the lack of detail in his asset declaration.

Sungai Buloh has now become a toss-up between Khairy, who proved his capabilities as Health Minister, and untested contender Ramanan, who has been on the defensive.

Predictably, there have been increasing personal attacks on Khairy and the Sungai Buloh contest is becoming a slugfest that symbolises the “season of madness” which typifies election campaigns throughout the world.

Ultimately, the constituency’s 158,090 voters will have to decide whether to cast their ballots for a candidate who, at 46, has the potential to be a PM; or for a candidate who will be just a number in Pakatan.

For Pakatan’s hardcore supporters, it will be a clear case of voting with the head or on raw emotions and unquestioned party loyalty. It looks set to be an exciting fight ahead.

IN almost all surveys carried out recently touching on voters’ concerns, the uppermost issue has been the cost of living and the price of goods.

It cuts across all races nationwide.

Yet, Malaysians have not heard many politicians weighing in on this major worry.

The average Malaysian voter needs to feed their family and pay multiple bills – tell us what you are going to do for us.

Our wages have not increased, inflation has gone up, and the ringgit has depreciated sharply.

The effects of the global economic recession will be felt even more next year, as the International Monetary Fund has warned.

But politicians seem to prefer to score rhetorical points at gatherings. One long-time politician pathetically called his opponents “LBGT, communists and bribe givers.”

Perhaps, the economy is not an attention-grabbing topic, but politicians should be reminded that this is 2022 and Malaysians are better informed.

Several politicians still prefer to infuse some form of “political entertainment,” including comic relief, to keep the audience tuned in and win emotional responses to lock in their votes.

Nothing wrong with that, but do address the issues at hand.

The Merdeka Centre, in its findings among 1,209 respondents across 222 parliamentary constituencies, put economic concerns including inflation as occupying most of the mind of 74% of interviewees.

They cited political instability, corruption, enhancing economic growth, and welfare protection under the category of economic concerns.

The Ilham Centre found a similar pattern with 1,622 respondents – 44% wanted an economic recovery, 35% preferred the authorities to reduce poverty and the cost of living, and 8% to clean up corruption.

Persatuan Penyelidik Negara and 02 Malaysia also put the increasing cost of living as the top topic from its 1,105 respondents, which also included wages, employment, currency, and the national debt.

Among Chinese respondents, cost of living and price of goods grabbed the attention of 78.63% of respondents, in a survey carried out by Huayan Policy Institute and Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies.

The various manifestos issued by political parties, especially those by the three main coalitions – Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional – will be given greater scrutiny this time.

Previously, voters may have taken these heavily worded documents lightly, but not anymore.

Malaysians will hold them responsible because holy books, regardless of the faith, are sacred.

Surely, we will not forget the infamous quote by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad that a manifesto is not a holy book that needs to be adhered to.

In describing Pakatan’s manifesto, he reportedly said in 2018 that the manifesto was “not a Bible” and was only a guide.

Barisan has unveiled its manifesto, which looks like a lengthy extension of the recent Budget with more financial allocations spelt out in detail.

Perikatan has taken out full-page advertisements with a summary of its “12 pillars, 30 approaches and 234 offers” to build a competitive economy.

The question now is what happens if two or three of these coalitions need to form a unity government together? How is the government going to pay for these promises?

Will we see common ground or priorities that these government partners can decide on?

But politicians do not think like us. No one is looking at any commitment beyond the two weeks of campaigning. It’s fight first, talk later.

As Malaysia heads towards a tough 2023, an inconclusive GE15 results looks to be a real possibility, with party heads now all saying that they are keeping options open.

But let’s hope our politicians learn from their American counterparts, where 75% of voters think that the United States is in a recession as the cost of living becoming overwhelming.

A CNN survey says that while US President Joe Biden is talking of “saving democracy” and restoring “the soul of our nation,” voters are more concerned about their finances.

In short, Biden and his Democrats are out of touch with the common folk’s daily struggles, and are now facing stiff punishment from voters, who may next turn to the Republicans.

Issues like climate change only received 6% of interest, gun policy at 7%, and abortion at 15% despite huge media coverage.

What comes to mind is the famous phrase coined by James Carville, an American political consultant and strategist for US president Bill Clinton, in 1992 – “The economy, stupid.”

Talk is cheap. Malaysians are interested in candidates who can fix the economy.

Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri (right)

IT isn’t likely that Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will be the Prime Minister if Barisan Nasional wins the general election. He is a seasoned politician, and he knows the game well.

The Umno president knows where he stands. While he has the power to sign the candidacy papers for Barisan candidates, he also remains the weakest link.

I am sure he has access to all the findings from the various sources, including those from Barisan and Umno.

Since campaigning for the 15th General Election started, the Opposition has used the narrative that a vote for Barisan is equivalent to endorsing Ahmad Zahid, who still faces charges of corruption, as the next PM.

Within Umno, there will also be the disgruntled ones who have been dropped as candidates, and these are probably Ahmad Zahid’s worst enemies now.

But many may have forgotten that last month, almost all the 191 Umno divisions passed a motion to support Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob as PM.

This motion was in addition to an earlier unanimous Umno supreme council decision to name Ismail Sabri as the Umno candidate for PM if Barisan wins the general election.

The party has also reiterated that Ismail Sabri will remain Barisan’s poster boy, and as Ahmad Zahid himself has said, Barisan’s stand will not change if the coalition succeeds in getting to administer Putrajaya.

Ahmad Zahid, a former deputy prime minister, has a tainted image even though he was recently freed of 40 corruption cases, but he still faces a string of others over the misappropriation of funds from charity outfit Yayasan Akalbudi.

In all surveys conducted separately by various groups, Ismail Sabri has come out stronger and higher than Ahmad Zahid, among respondents of all races and ages.

The Ilham Centre, which interviewed 1,622 people nationwide over two months, put Ismail Sabri on the number one spot for PM, followed by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Ahmad Zahid was the last of 10 names.

Another survey by Persatuan Penyelidik Negara and 02 Malaysia found that of the 12 names mentioned for PM, Anwar was at the top, followed by Ismail Sabri and Khairy Jamaluddin.

Ahmad Zahid was not among the names mentioned by any of the 1,105 respondents.

A survey of Chinese respondents by the Huayan Policy Institute and the Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies put Anwar as the most popular choice, with Ahmad Zahid at the bottom of the list of 14 names.

Merdeka Center’s findings for leader ratings as of Oct 28 showed that 43% of respondents of all races were satisfied with Ismail Sabri, 46% with Muhyiddin, Anwar Ibrahim (34%), and Ahmad Zahid at 12%, again, at the last spot.

Even Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan obtained 32% of the vote.

Among the crucial Malay votes, Ismail Sabri finished on top with 58%, followed by Muhyiddin with 57%, Mohamad with 49%, Anwar with 26% and Ahmad Zahid with 16% at the last spot.

A comparison of the surveys also showed that the respondents picked Barisan as their first choice, especially among the Malays.

Merdeka Center found that 32% will vote for Barisan, 20% for Perikatan and 13% for Pakatan, with 29% undecided as of Oct 28.

For Persatuan Penyelidik and O2, 26% wanted Barisan, 17% wanted Perikatan and 39% wanted Pakatan as of Oct 10.

Among the Malays in Peninsular Malaysia, 35.7% said they would vote for Barisan, 28.9% for Perikatan and 25.5% for Pakatan, as of Oct 10.

Barisan is the top choice of Malays aged 41 and above with 38.3%, against Pakatan’s 30.5% and Perikatan’s 24.9%.

For those in the 31-40 age bracket, Barisan garnered 35.2%, Pakatan (24.5%) and Perikatan (30.1%), while for young respondents aged 18-30, 31.4% wanted Barisan, 30% wanted Pakatan and 20.7% wanted Perikatan.

Over the coming weeks, the campaigning will get hotter with more information being sent to us via social media.

Most of us will not have sufficient knowledge to pick the real narrative from the fake ones.

Old videos and pictures have also been recycled to suit the agenda of the campaigners.

But while Ismail Sabri isn’t the most attractive PM product, the fact is that he remains at the top spot in the popularity ratings, and his opponents are also breathing down his neck.

The key to winning the GE is to capture the votes of the Malay heartland, and with the determinant Malay votes split into Barisan, Pakatan and Perikatan, the non-Malays will now be the decider, especially those from Sabah and Sarawak.

But at the end of the day, let’s remember we are all Malaysians, and we will be the ones who decide for Malaysia.