With their unceremonious removal, angry warlords could be on the rampage.

NO doubt, they are the big names in Umno, with positions at national, state and division levels, too.

They are the warlords with immense power who influence many party grassroots members and the outcome of party elections. Many of them are also delegates who can even decide the fate of national party leaders.

Simply put, they exercise control over members and voters with their established network.

These personalities, with their arrogance and uncouth ways, may not be popular with many Malaysians, yet they are known to dispense patronage effectively in their constituencies.

They are hugely popular among their division members as well as their constituents. That may be news to many urban voters, but truth be told, they take great care of their constituencies, including non-Malay concerns.

These people include Tan Sri Shahidan Kassim (Arau), Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman (Pasir Salak), Tan Sri Annuar Musa (Ketereh) and Tan Sri Noh Omar (Tanjung Karang).

They control the machinery, which is essential during the general election and even simple by-elections. They make up a crucial cog of the Umno political wheel and other component parties in the Barisan Nasional also depend on them for the Malay votes.

However, they’ve now become monsters in Umno and have returned to haunt the party, which created these political beasts in the first place by allowing them to wield their clout with impunity.

Even worse, many of them have begun to treat these parliamentary constituencies as their personal fiefdoms.

Despite owing their positions and wealth to Umno, they have now threatened to contest under rival parties instead, after being dropped as candidates for the coming elections.

Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has found himself backed into a corner – he has discarded the big names and risks losing these seats to Bersatu or PAS. It’s a huge gamble, and the odds are stacked against Ahmad Zahid since Barisan can’t afford to lose any winnable seats by default. These disgruntled and sulking politicians have already openly declared war against Ahmad Zahid.

For the first time, the imperative Malay votes are split between three coalitions, namely Barisan, Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional, which may lead to a fragmented and inconclusive GE result.

Chinese and Indians voters are almost certain to pin their hopes on Pakatan, despite a decline of 10% according to surveys, when compared to GE14 in 2018.

In 2018, a shift of about 30% Malay votes was enough to end Barisan’s 60-year reign.

The reality is that rural votes are worth more than urban ones, as the gerrymandering impact is clear.

The DAP, particularly, will only get about 40-odd seats even if 95% of Chinese voters back Pakatan. That’s the cold, hard truth. The decision of the predominantly Malay voters will make the difference, as always.

This time, there are even more variables, although early surveys indicate Barisan is ahead with a 37% lead among all races, according to 02 Research Malaysia. It said Pakatan has 32% and Perikatan 19%, while 12% remain uncertain.

As seasoned political analysts would know, surveys are never always accurate. In 2018, the common finding was that Barisan would win at least 120 seats, but that’s not how things panned out. Some said even the police and army intelligence got their predictions wrong.

But this isn’t endemic to Malaysia. Even CNN, with its impressive charts and well-articulated analysis, never fathomed Donald Trump would be elected US president in 2016.

So, with these Umno bigwigs shown the door, they are not going to go quietly.

Don’t expect them to toe the line although they have pledged their undying loyalty to the party, race and religion repeatedly in the past. The new candidates proposed for these affected constituencies will find it hard to operate, let alone win.

Let’s look at their ages – Shahidan is 71, Annuar Musa 66, Tajuddin 74 and Noh Omar 64 – but they are unlikely to believe they are past their use-by date and should allow younger leaders to move up instead.

Succession planning is an alien concept in politics. Should they step aside, they will probably only do so to accommodate their children, like a family dynasty.

Unfortunately, the playing field isn’t level because despite being 85, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah can continue to defend his Gua Musang seat. He has been an MP since 1969 – half the people or more in Malaysia weren’t even born yet.

Then, there is Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor, who is 72, but has been allowed to contest the Putrajaya seat again.

The mess, however, isn’t just confined to Umno but has also spread to other parties including DAP, PKR, Amanah, Bersatu, PAS and Barisan component parties as well.

Some incumbents have served for three terms, but it’s still never enough for these politicians.

DAP leader Fong Kui Lun, 76, has been MP for Bukit Bintang for 23 years while Cheras MP Tan Kok Wai, 65, has retained his seat for 27 years.

Both are DAP strongholds, and any young leaders could have taken over and won handsomely, yet these same people have been named candidates.

Somehow though, incumbent Klang MP Charles Santiago, despite his popularity, was unceremoniously dropped because “he has served three terms.”

Emotional outbursts by dropped incumbents have been common at every general election ahead of nomination day. In the words of Thomas Sowell, an American author, philosopher and economist – politics is the art of making your selfish desires seem like the national interest.

In the case of Malaysia, we all know by now, that these politicians – including those facing corruption charges – will claim they are fighting for race and religion, too.

The only problem is there are enough voters who will believe them because the politicians they love so much remain infallible angels.

The more the fairer?: The suggestion is for a DPM each from Sabah, Sarawak and the Peninsula.

‘Good intentions’ aside, three is a crowd in an already bloated administration.

WHY do we need two or three Deputy Prime Ministers? Aren’t we drowning with Ministers, Deputies and Special Envoys who barely make a ripple in the already bloated Cabinet?

Both the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan are unabashedly attempting to out-do each other in securing their share of DPMs.

The suggestion is for a DPM each from Sabah, Sarawak and from Peninsula.

The two competing coalitions are aware that no side will have the edge to form the next federal government without the support of parties from our two largest states.

At stake are 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak, where the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) is expected to unleash a tsunami, with at least 26 seats in the coming federal elections.

The GPS comprises Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) and Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS).

The DAP has six seats, but it’s Stampin, Lanang and Sibu that will be in the crosshairs, where SUPP has a chance of snatching it back from the DAP. However, much hinges on the candidates it fields.

But PH has sounded a warning against the early optimism of GPS, pointing out that there are 600,000 new voters, whose allegiances are unknown. How wonderful for them to experience voting for the first time and be able to choose the best future for the country.

In Sabah, 25 Parliamentary seats are up for grabs, but don’t expect a scrap like in the Peninsula because the state is governed by Gabungan Rakyat Sabah-Barisan Nasional.

Barisan comprises Umno, MCA, MIC and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS), while GRS is made up of Bersatu, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS).

In Sabah, where politics is always complicated, 25 seats are at stake, but the perception now is that the state would be shared by Barisan, GRS/Bersatu and Warisan, with its six seats and DAP with its few.

Again, there are many variables, and the scenario will only be clearer closer to polling day. There are half a million new voters there.

It’s realistic to believe the promise of a DPM from the two states will be bandied to gain votes during the campaign.

These Peninsula politicians may have overshot in their promises, but it doesn’t look like they’ve tuned in to the sentiments of the rest of Malaysia, either.

Even Sabah and Sarawak have given lukewarm responses to the promises by these two coalitions, so far.

So, on one hand, we hear Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim pledging to whittle the allowances of the PM and shrink the Cabinet, and in the same breath, says he will have more DPMs.

Writing in Sinar Harian, its editor-in-chief Rozaid Rahman said, “the irony is Anwar made the promises after giving the assurance to reduce the size of the Cabinet and would perform salary and allowance cuts for the prime minister if they successfully formed a government.

“The question we have is how would these savings be achieved if he intended to create the DPM positions?

“Together with the positions would be additional salaries, allowances, special privileges such as a residence, additional police escorts, personal guards, and exclusive usage of aircraft during visits and official work domestically or internationally.

“This is before considering the added support staff they require as well as being given the title becoming the ‘Yang Amat Berhormat’ (YAB) Deputy Prime Minister.

“In our country, there are only four positions that hold the title YAB – the first is the Prime Minister, followed by Menteri Besar, Chief Minister and lastly, the Deputy Prime Minister. Along with the YAB title, there are benefits that come with it, as stated above.

“So, where would this Cabinet focus on cutting down and saving if they intend to add positions not written down in the Constitution and want to declare that DPM has not received any privileges they enjoyed – for the people, for the country.”

Believe it or no not, there was a time when police outriders were purely for the PM and DPM, besides the Sultans and Yang di-Pertua Negeri, of course.

But now, certain ministers and even officials have earned these privileges.

In fact, the Federal Constitution is bereft of provision for the position of a DPM, but first PM Tunku Abdul Rahman picked Tun Abdul Razak to assist him, and the tradition has remained.

But as Rozaid pointed out, when Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was PM, he only elected a DPM – Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob – a month before he resigned, but before that, he had only elected senior ministers.

Ismail Sabri replaced Muhyiddin’s position in August 2021, thus, the DPM seat was vacant, and he maintained the senior ministers until Parliament’s dissolution on Oct 10. Hence, Muhyiddin was the last prime minister to appoint a DPM.

Having three DPMs would merely be symbolic. Authority would be diluted, and, in the end, it would have been pointless.

If the GPS delivers 26 seats or more and is the key to forming a federal government to ensure stability, then Sarawak deserves to get the DPM post. In fact, it should demand that post as a condition.

Sarawak should also demand equal partner status and rights under the Malaysia Agreement of 1963 (MA63) – in the formation of Malaysia – be fulfilled.

A lot of Malaysians would prefer to see a DPM from Sarawak for a change. Perhaps more Sabahans and Sarawakians in a lean Cabinet?

Long process: Election Commission staff preparing election materials to be delivered to various parliamentary constituencies in Sarawak for the 15th General Election. — ZULAZHAR SHEBLEE/The Star

IT’S going to be a protracted process. In fact, the 14-day campaign period is among the longest in the nation’s electoral history.

Predictably, many Malaysians were hoping for an 11-day runup, and the most popular date for polling was Nov 12. The date would also avoid coinciding with the wet season predicted to arrive by the middle of November.

So one wonders about the factors deliberated on by the Election Commission (EC) before deciding on Nov 19 as the polling day.

The longer the campaign stretches, the more it costs the candidates, workers, the EC officials and the media, too. The 15th General Election (GE15) will set taxpayers back RM1bil, and that doesn’t even include spending by the respective political parties and other stakeholders.

With most states opting to dissolve their state assemblies only when their terms end in July 2023, more expense will be incurred for another round of polling then.

The endless politicking in our country has become the bane of most Malaysians’ existence, so the last thing we want is another round of elections within a calendar year.

The same narratives will likely be rolled out, along with the same personalities leading the campaigns. So how many new sales pitches will we hear at state levels?

The Penang DAP got it right when it said that the sentiments of Penangites was to have the state polls concurrently, but unfortunately, the national level Pakatan Harapan leadership shot it down.

DAP national legal bureau chief Ramkarpal Singh correctly said Pakatan shouldn’t burden the people by holding separate parliamentary and state elections. His first-hand knowledge of word on the street is that the people aren’t keen on separate elections.

Describing GE15 as a forced election, he said there is nothing unprincipled in holding concurrent elections.

Unfortunately, national Pakatan leaders view it differently from Penang leaders.

There’s the impression that these state governments under Pakatan and PAS merely want to cling on to being in government.

In fact, the Opposition had previously pushed for an early election with the argument that the present Federal Government had no mandate from the people, given that it was a “backdoor government” born from the Sheraton Move.

But it has been reluctant to take on Barisan Nasional, and the Opposition – be it Pakatan or PAS – has used the monsoon to justify not having the general election this year.

Logically, with the conviction of Datuk Seri Najib Razak for corruption still fresh in the minds of the people, it would be easier for the Opposition to take advantage of the situation.

It should be claiming credit for the anti-corruption rhetoric against Najib and other Umno leaders.

The Opposition is convinced that the issue will continue to be effective.

If Najib and the 1MDB financial scandal were successfully “used” during GE14 campaigning in 2018, they will definitely factor in now as well, since he remains a major talking point. This time, the Opposition’s argument would be that if Barisan wins, Najib could be freed.

The former PM may be in prison, but he remains a dominant figure.

It’s still premature to predict GE15’s victor, but that hasn’t stopped chat groups, teh tarik sessions and family discussions from going into overdrive now that the dates for nomination and polling have been announced.

The campaign hasn’t started and until we know the line-up of the candidates, it will be hard to make an educated assessment.

The consensus this time is that it could be another round of inconclusive and fragmented results, with the various parties not securing enough numbers to form a government.

Then there are also those who have confidently predicted that Barisan will have an edge by highlighting the failures of the 22-month Pakatan government tenure, and that’s one reason for GE15 being called.

But hardcore DAP and PKR supporters claim there will be a repeat of GE14, where a 30% to 35% of Malay votes was enough to overthrow the Barisan government of 60 years. However, the parties and candidates will only really be tested in the coming weeks.

GE15 will be really rough. Those without the stomach and wits to bear the harrowing two weeks will falter.

No one should take anything – especially the voters – for granted.

Forget the old and jaded spiels, and don’t make assumptions either, especially when there will be 5.8 million new voters in this general election.