Surging forward: If oil continues to stay at US$60 per barrel, it will bring Malaysia additional revenue of RM5.4bil that will shore up our balance sheet. — Filepic/Petronas

IT’S the Chinese New Year, so it’s important we kick off the Year of the Ox with bullish optimism. There are just too many naysayers among us who love to depict the worst of Malaysia and parade those sentiments on social media.

Nothing seems to be right and we let politics get in our way. The habit of forwarding every single political message is simply self-sabotage.

But I think we can take this happy and auspicious occasion to share some positive vibes.

While the world continues to struggle with the Covid-19 pandemic that has also robbed us of the opportunity to visit our families and friends for CNY, I embrace the good news of mass vaccination being planned in most parts of the globe.

In Malaysia, almost the entire population should be covered by the end of next year.

With the inoculation exercise’s imminent roll out, we should be able to stem the tide of contagion and have this virus firmly under control. After all, it’s wrecked our lives and livelihoods for long enough.

Last week, for the first time in a long time, oil prices soared for a ninth day on Wednesday. This has been its greatest success in two years, aided by producer supply cuts and the belief that the availability of vaccines will spur the desperate need for economic recovery.

Brent crude was up 44 cents, or 0.7%, at US$61.53 (RM248.74) last week after an encouraging 13- month run of US$61.61 (RM249.06) earlier in the session. US crude was up 37 cents, or 0.6%, to US$58.73 (RM237.42), having touched US$58.76 (RM237.54), registering a high of the same duration.

It’s been nine sessions in a row for Brent’s rise, its longest run of gains since December 2018 to January 2019. The consensus among analysts is prices have surged beyond the underlying fundamentals, a report revealed.

If oil continues to stay at US$60 (RM242.55) per barrel, it will bring Malaysia additional oil-related revenue of RM5.4bil.

According to a report, higher oil prices would relieve the budget – given its tight fiscal space – and help shore up the government’s balance sheet.

In fact, on the first day of CNY in New York, the price of Brent crude climbed to US$62.43 (RM252.37) a barrel. Even though the price of oil has always been volatile, this good showing will help our coffers.

Meanwhile, as the price of crude oil continues to climb, the ringgit has also strengthened against the US dollar.

Optimism has surfaced because the market expects production to begin with oil prices moving up since November and governments starting their vaccination drives while installing large stimulus packages to boost economic activity. Of course, the world’s top producers kept a lid on supply, too.

Former Treasury secretary-general Tan Sri Mohd Sheriff Mohd Kassim noted that commodity prices in general were rising with the hope of world recovery this year.

He added that our manufacturers were feeling confident the global demand for Malaysian-made products would also start picking up soon.

“So we can expect 2021 to be the beginning of economic recovery, ” he predicts.

This month and the next, prime exporter Saudi Arabia will be reducing supply, augmenting cuts agreed by other Opec+ (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) members and allies.

Supply will fall short of demand this year – that’s the belief of some analysts, especially as the world’s population progressively gets vaccinated and demand for travel and office work resumes.

The aviation industry, which has withered following the closure of international borders, will recover because of the overwhelming demand for air travel.

More importantly, Malaysia will gain RM300mil for every US dollar increase in crude oil prices at current levels of the US dollar-ringgit exchange rate.

On our end, the National Immunisation Programme, targeting 80% of Malaysians, will be a key factor in driving our growth in 2021, which is something most of us are looking forward to.

Then there’s the 12th Malaysia Plan and Budget 2022, in which the government will also look into various structural and inter-ministry solutions. They include revamping our human capital policies; building capacity for the transition to a higher-income nation; reassessing the economy from an ESG (environmental, social and governance) standpoint to achieve our Shared Prosperity Vision; strengthening our revenue base; and creating a sustainable ecosystem for entrepreneurship and innovation.

Malaysia clearly must reform its national investment strategy since we can’t rely on cheap foreign labour because it will only have a temporary effect.

Sooner or later, investors will find it easier and cheaper to move to the likes of Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia for the abundant labour force and lower wages.

We need to attract high-quality investments that can meaningfully enhance our productive capacity, create high-skilled jobs, promote technology transfer, and foster domestic linkages.

There has been much talk of Malaysia losing out in foreign direct investments (FDI), but during the first nine months of 2020, investments approved totalled RM10bil, of which 40% was FDI, including high-end and high-technology multinational corporations that have set up shop here or increased their investments.

According to Finance Minister Senator Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Aziz, the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority has also identified 240 high profile FDIs with a combined potential investment of close to RM82bil.

But we need to work harder on our narratives with the media – local and foreign – as well as investors. And in asking Malaysians to play their part, we expect our politicians to be better role models, too.

Bad news seems to fly fast, and good news rarely takes off. Excessive politicking and unproductive rhetoric on race and religion needs to be eradicated because Malaysia has a good thing going. And it can only get better if we make the right choices.

To all Malaysians, let’s hope the bull comes charging at us with great news! Gong Xi Fa Cai to all who celebrate the Chinese New Year.

APPARENTLY, the fastest way for some Bursa-listed companies to jack up their share prices is to suggest they have received the green light to supply Covid-19 vaccines to Malaysia.

And we’re not even talking about a mere memorandum of understanding with a Chinese partner, but the brazen claim that they have Health Ministry authorisation.

However, the National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Agency (NPRA) hasn’t received any submissions.

It’s not the NPRA’s practice to respond to press reports of companies claiming to have the Health Ministry’s approval for vaccine distribution.

These companies have no track record for dealing in pharmaceutical or health products, and yet, they have now joined the vaccine business, or so they say. One, which has yet to get recognition, has even claimed to be a distributor of a reputable Chinese vaccine.

In a few cases, these announcements were filed at Bursa, which provides that touch of authority.

Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba and Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah have divulged that no applications have come from the few companies which made public announcements.

Last week, the Securities Commission issued a warning to a company for a misleading Bursa filing, which claimed it had obtained ministry approval to distribute Covid-19 vaccines, before backtracking two days later.

The SC said it would penalise listed entities which disseminate false or misleading information in a bid to induce trading or influence share prices.

The commission said those found guilty of offences likely to induce the trading of shares or to influence share prices, could face up to 10 years in prison and be fined no less than RM1mil.

The SC is the sole regulatory agency for the regulation and development of capital markets and has direct responsibility for supervising and monitoring the activities of market institutions.

The dissemination of false or misleading information is a serious breach under securities laws. Simply put – it’s tantamount to cheating and lying to the public.

Since they are filings with Bursa, ordinary shareholders will assume this information to be true.

Even the media has blindly picked up these announcements from Bursa and assumed they were the gospel truth. Only the health reporters have diligently checked with Dr Noor Hisham on the approval status of vaccines.

It’s also not his job to check on claims by these companies. It’s here that SC and Bursa must act strongly against errant companies for providing false information.

Clearly, the chief executive officers and directors of these companies should be hauled up.

One company claimed it received clearance from the Health Ministry to commence negotiations with any Chinese company for the importation, distribution, sale and application of Covid-19 vaccines in Malaysia.

The company revealed it had obtained an approval letter “to commence negotiation and cooperation with any company from China”, but later said otherwise about the document.

The media has a duty to report such misleading claims, and they shouldn’t be cowed by legal letters demanding an apology or retraction of their reports, especially when they’ve checked with Health Ministry officials.

At least nine public listed companies have reportedly claimed they have inked agreements – in some form or another – with mainly Chinese partners, for distributing vaccines.

With frontliners and those from high-risk groups needing priority as the government begins its largest ever immunisation programme for 26.5 million Malaysians, private hospitals should also truly be considered in this inoculation exercise.

It can run concurrently with the government’s mass vaccination programme and will relieve its burden.

Those who can afford to seek vaccination from the private sector, especially those above 60, and key economy drivers, should have access to such an alternative.

So if the vaccine has already been approved by the Malaysian government, the private sector should be encouraged to make its own arrangements for supplies.

The Bangkok Post reported that two Thai private hospitals had ordered millions of doses of coronavirus vaccines ahead of regulatory approval, adding to government orders of vaccines as Thailand tackles a second wave of the virus.

“We ordered one million doses of the Sinovac vaccine with an option to buy nine million more, ” Boon Vanasin, the chairman of Thonburi Healthcare Group Plc, told Reuters.

From the initial one million doses, he plans to use about half to inoculate staff in its network of 40 hospitals and workers in its other businesses once Thailand’s Food and Drug Administration gives the go ahead.

In Brazil, reports reveal the National Health Surveillance Agency will allow private hospitals and clinics to administer the jabs as soon as a vaccine is approved.

It said private hospitals will run their programmes alongside the government timetable, “potentially speeding up the rate of immunisation in the country.”

So far, the only vaccine endorsed by NPRA is the one by Pfizer, which was developed by BioNTech. CoronaVac, the Covid-19 vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac Life Sciences, is expected to get its approval next month.

But Pharmaniaga Bhd has already taken proactive steps and secured the nod to supply millions of doses of it.

The company announced that it was now looking to supply its vaccines to the private sector and government-linked companies (GLCs) in the second half of the year.

However, the pharmaceutical group’s main priority is to supply the vaccines to the government first and only then channel the rest to the private sector, GLCs, expatriates and foreign workers, said its group managing director Datuk Zulkarnain Md Eusope.

Last week, Pharmaniaga’s unit, Pharmaniaga Lifescience Sdn Bhd, announced it bagged the contract from the Health Ministry to supply 12 million doses by April this year.

While there may be concerns the wealthy could jump the queue if private hospitals participated, clauses could be imposed factoring age and health problems such as diabetes, which make people susceptible to the virus.

It can’t be denied that the vulnerable must be given priority at public health facilities, but private hospitals can play a complementary role, too.

In Britain, the army and fire brigade have been enlisted to carry out the massive immunisation exercise, where even churches and other places of worship have been used to reach out to the people. In the United States, stadiums are being utilised, all of which outline the scale of humanity at play.

We must also include foreign workers as their health safety is crucial to the economy and the people around them.

We value their contribution to the country’s economy and certainly, they should not be last in line simply because they’re foreigners.

Malaysia will roll out the vaccines at the end of the month. Let’s make this programme an effective one with our support as we head into a brave new world of security and good health. Let’s get this going!

LET’S face it – investors will not put their money in Malaysia if they’re unsure of the country and the federal government’s status tomorrow.

Malaysia once proudly told investors it has a stable government, but it can no longer make that sales pitch.

The present federal government under Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin (pic) has a wafer-thin majority, and it’s struggling to keep the administration intact.

Law makers from Umno in the ruling coalition have threatened to withdraw support and want an immediate general election, despite the raging pandemic.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim still thinks it’s his entitlement to be Prime Minister, and probably spends his time counting and recounting his list of supporters.

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad still feels he should be PM – for the third time – and that no one is ever going to be as good as him.

Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak awaits jail sentence and would do anything to avoid the slammer.

Meanwhile, PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, the king maker, is busy spinning the myth or rather, fantasy, that the minority non-Muslims are hatching a plan against Malay-based parties.

Now, even with several billions of dollars to invest, why would anyone want to look at Malaysia, especially if one needs justification for their shareholders?

They can choose any country they want in Asean, or anywhere else which could offer a better deal.

An unstable government, squabbling politicians, endless shortage of labour, constant water disruptions, corruption, and race and religion issues aren’t going to make for great selling points. After all, we know how ruthless our competitors can be because these factors will surely be used against Malaysia.

Keeping it real, if you are an investor, there’s no room for doubt. You want deals as certain as sunrise.

No businessmen would want to work with a country that keeps changing its PM or governments because that translates to changing policies.

Then, there are ministers who display prejudice against businessmen who signed on agreements with their predecessors.

They opine that these businessmen must be lackeys of the past government. So naturally, they insist on the review of those huge projects, further delaying their implementation. And finally, they broker for new contracts as well.

So, it’s not surprising that one of the biggest concerns among Malaysians is a report by the United Nations on foreign direct investments (FDI) to Asean countries, which has placed Malaysia as the hardest hit in the region in 2020.

Nearly all Asean countries have seen drops in FDI, but Malaysia is down 68%.

FDI is an investment made by a firm or individual in one country, into business interests in another, according to one definition.

To paint a clearer picture, the report states that FDIs to many developed and developing countries have also dropped in 2020, especially in South-East Asia, which contracted by 31% due to decline in investment to the largest recipients. The tale is similar in South America and Africa, too.

The report predicts that global FDI flows will remain weak in 2021 as the slide continues, with most investors likely to remain cautious in committing capital to new overseas ventures.

Alarmingly, the drop in FDI in Malaysia began a few years ago, and not just in 2020 or 2019.

This was before the uncertainties from the Covid-19 pandemic, which locked the entire world down, and not just Malaysia. So, it’s not the sole reason.

Let’s see how we stack up. Vietnam is the poster boy of Asean investment now.

No one cares if a country is ruled by a single party, so long as it’s politically stable. It’s much easier to deal with than democratic India, what with its nosy, quarrelsome politicians, love for litigation and bureaucracy.

Vietnam, on the other hand, has a huge, hungry and young workforce.

Singapore has an image of being a squeaky-clean country. Again, PAP has been ruling since 1963, and it has a sound legal framework and financial regulation.

The island nation has become the most attractive place for digital companies, including start-ups.

Grab was set up by a Malaysian who left for Singapore after failing to get support. We know how that one turned out.

The ride-hailing company has a strong, professional workforce, which comprises many Malaysians and expatriates. Singapore makes expats and rich people feel welcome, while we’re still unclear about our Malaysia My Second Home policy.

It’s easier for untrained and unskilled foreigners to stay and secure permanent resident status in Malaysia than it is for a foreigner with millions to spend.

Indonesia is getting its act together, and with a population of more than a quarter of a billion people, and with increasing Internet and smartphone penetration, it’s a massive market by itself.

President Jokowi has pressed the right buttons and provided the image to the world that it’s a tolerant and moderate country.

We know our weaknesses, so for our sake, we need to paint a rosier picture. The last thing Malaysia needs is self-inflicted pot shots.

We still have a vibrant business environment, with an open, diversified and robust economy, and our infrastructure is good and sound, which is paramount for operations.

The Malaysian workforce is young and educated. Certainly, most Malaysians speak English, and Mandarin literacy is an advantage in dealing with China.

Our ethnic and religious links to West Asia, Indonesia, China and India, gives us the biggest advantage in making us a strategic location between Asia and the rest of the world.

Former Treasury secretary-general Tan Sri Mohd Sheriff Mohd Kassim said Malaysia has a dynamic business culture among the business communities because of our multi-racial makeup.

“Each race brings its own strength to the economy. The legacy from the foreign migration from China, India and Indonesia over the last 200 years is that we have a modern generation of business leaders emerging to blaze new paths to success.”

The government, despite the current uncertainties, is still pro-business, and its policies clearly reflect that in ensuring opportunities for growth and profit.

But we need to do better. As Dr Sukudhew (Sukhdave) Singh, a former Bank Negara Malaysia deputy governor and former Khazanah Nasional Bhd director, wrote recently in an article: “We are not a united nation. This is not an accident of history. It is the outcome of a political game plan.”

He posed several relevant questions, including, after 30 years, is our economy strong, resilient, competitive and dynamic? Are we an economically self-righteous society with fair distribution of wealth and without discrimination, exploitation and injustices? Are we a liberal, tolerant and knowledgeable society? Are we an ethical and moral society? Are we a liberal democracy? Do we have “Bangsa Malaysia”?

“Hence, Malaysia remains a divided nation with its citizens defined by race and religion, and with differing economic and political agendas. This makes us weak and vulnerable.

“What we need now is a clear vision of our place in the global economy, the courage to make effective change even in the face of opposition from vested interest groups, and finally, effective implementation. If we care about our future, we simply cannot allow what is happening now to continue.”

But all is not lost. I believe in Malaysia and Malaysians – not necessarily the politicians – because we’ve been written off before, even by the British when they accorded us independence. However, we’ve always bounced back.

We are seeing it in trade, which rebounded with a high trade surplus even during the pandemic, due largely to the high demand for rubber and electrical and electronic products.

According to the Statistic Department, Malaysia recorded the highest exports of RM95.7bil in December last year.

We need to stimulate the investment climate to make it more dynamic, so that it offsets the declining trend from FDI inflows. After all, this can’t change overnight.

We can’t afford any cut and paste, or worse, unimaginative, development plans for the coming years. And truth be told, we’re sick and tired of politicians who are only busy plotting to put themselves in power at a time like this.