THE Sabah state elections has turned out to be a “numbers game” in every sense as the polls will see the most multicornered fights in the history of Malaysian elections.

This is one election where there are no straight fights, no unopposed victories and, most certainly, the largest number of eight-way contests the country has seen.

It has the most independents, newly-formed parties, breakaways and even contests between parties which supposedly share the same platform.

Sabah voters are notoriously indecisive – past voting patterns have proven that they seldom elect a strong government, and this has led to defections which caused past state governments to collapse, as what happened in the 2018 state elections.

The Barisan Nasional government fell apart when six of its state assemblymen jumped to Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal’s coalition, comprising his Parti Warisan Sabah, DAP and PKR.

The party hopping of the six state assemblymen from the United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (Upko) and Umno helped to end Barisan’s 24-year rule in Sabah.

This time, Malaysians are watching if there will be another hung state government or one that has a razor-thin majority, which would only tell the same story.

The largest number of contenders indicates that the individuals wish to be spoilers, or perhaps they feel they could make a difference for themselves or Sabah.

There’s a word Sabahans use to describe the situation: “democrazy”.

I had completed this column late Friday night with a general analysis of what could take place in the state, but by midnight, my mobile phone was ringing nonstop. There were endless text messages from several candidates who wanted to update me with the latest information.

It was turning into a nightmare for them, especially those from the opposition, as last minute negotiations to work out straight fights had broken down.

While there were better results in reaching a consensus between Umno and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, it was a different story elsewhere.

In fact, Warisan and PKR kept their alliance intact despite earlier talk of a disagreement.

But the MCA, which is fielding four candidates, has to face Parti Bersatu Sabah, a friendly party.

In a nutshell, my original piece turned out to be outdated, and while we had expected plenty of candidates in the fray, it was more crowded than we had imagined.

Sabah’s politics have always been complicated, and despite having covered many past elections in the state, this is one campaign which my colleagues and I have found hard to read.

But it will be the most exciting ever because many variables will come into play as the daggers are drawn.

Party loyalty doesn’t exist in this town, where defections are an acceptable part of the political culture, and sabotaging comrades is common.

I’m not sure if you can believe politicians, especially when they put on their straight faces and “welcome” the involvement of new political parties and possibly independents, apparently embracing “the more the merrier” belief.

Political parties supposedly aligned could well be contesting against each other unless they come to an agreement.

Until last week, the media reported cracks were distinct in the opposition alliance of Sabah Perikatan Nasional, Sabah Barisan Nasional and PBS, when party leaders began naming candidates for the same seats on Thursday. The media revealed that it was clear open war had broken out on the opposition side, while fissures appeared in Warisan Plus where Sabah PKR initially held back its participation, only agreeing to a seat-sharing deal later in the evening.

But consensus worked out in most constituencies to ensure a more effective opposition,

Newcomer Datuk Seri Anifah Aman’s party, Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS), is contesting in all 73 seats.

Contesting in the Sabah polls is an expensive affair, but it has managed to raise funds in a short time. This former Umno MP and former Foreign Minister is also throwing down the gauntlet by taking on the parties of the ruling federal government.

He’s also the brother of former Sabah chief minister Tan Sri Musa Aman, who hasn’t been nominated by Umno to contest.

Without the ticket to contest a seat, it’s uncertain what kind of role – directly or indirectly – this powerful strongman will play in the elections.

PCS can certainly cause serious damage as a spoiler to Sabah Perikatan, Sabah Barisan and Warisan Plus if the margins are tight. Anifah, however, has indicated PCS is ready to be a kingmaker.

However, party observers say that’s simply because family members are contesting, including Aman’s relative and Musa’s son-in-law. Another seat is held by Musa’s senior aide when he was CM.

In the eyes of many, PCS has been formed to wreck Barisan’s plans and frustrate Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, who is heading the coalition’s campaign.

However, Bung Moktar knows the political terrain like the back of his hand, even if he’s often perceived as crude.

I have visited his rural constituency of Kinabatangan, where most voters seem fond of him. That explains why he gets re-elected, to the bewilderment of urbanites on the peninsula.

Umno’s structure and machinery are strong in Sabah, so the party shouldn’t be underestimated.

The battle in the Sabah polls will be in the Muslim bumiputra seats, and Warisan is popular in the east coast areas, especially in Semporna (Shafie’s stronghold), Sandakan and in pockets on the west coast and on the northern side.

The west coast is made up of Kota Kinabalu, Ranau, Kota Belud, Tuaran, Penampang and Papar; up in the north, there’s Kudat, Pitas, Kota Marudu and Banggi.

The opposition, especially Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, has made an issue of Shafie’s ethnicity, saying he’s a Bajau-Suluk, the same group of people in southern Philippines.

The accusation is that under the current government, illegal immigrants will flood the state, but Warisan has refuted this claim.

The key battles will also be in the Kadazan-Dusun-Murut (KDM) majority seats, where close fights are expected between Warisan Plus and the opposition.

In the last general elections, Barisan fared way better than Warisan, winning 15 KDM-dominated seats through Umno, PBRS and its then component parties PBS and Upko.

Warisan, now with Upko on its side, is hoping to do better than the three KDM seats it secured. Upko won five seats in GE14 in 2018.

According to a news report, 22 seats were considered as KDM majority areas from the 60 state seats contested in May 2018, but in the upcoming elections, there could be at least four more seats with KDM majority voters out of the 13 newly-created state seats. This means the KDM seats will represent over a third of the 73 seats up for grabs in the 16th state elections.

Much of the campaign will involve visits to the homes of the electorate. The campaign will be a quiet one because of the rural setting, as well as the absence of big gatherings due to Covid-19-mandated social distancing practices. So social media will play a huge role in areas with online access.

Given the unpredictability of this elections, voters could well return a hung government or a government with no clear majority, like in previous polls.

No wonder the frogs always have a place in Sabah politics. You can almost hear the croaking now in this wet season, well before even the first votes are cast.

Let’s be clear — defections are diabolically wrong. It’s perplexing how people can condemn the crossover to Barisan but cheer the leap into Pakatan. If this isn’t democrazy, then what is?

A PILGRIMAGE to Jerusalem, the holy land of Christians, wouldn’t be complete without visiting the Church of Cana, more popularly known as the Wedding Church.

Couples, be it pilgrims or just tourists, often take the opportunity to renew their wedding vows in this holy place.

It’s no ordinary church because it was during a wedding there that Jesus performed the miracle of turning water into wine, as depicted in the Bible.

As stated in the Gospel of John, Jesus’ mother and his disciples were invited to the wedding when the party ran out of wine. Mother Mary then told Jesus of the situation.

Nearby stood six stone water jars, the kind used for ceremonial washing, each capable of holding 20 to 30 gallons of water. Jesus told the servants to fill the jars to the brim with water.

According to the Bible, turning water into wine was his first miracle.

In Matthew 26:26-29, where the scene of the Last Supper was recorded, the Bible said: “As they were eating, Jesus took some bread and blessed it.

“Then he broke it in pieces and gave it to the disciples, saying, “Take this and eat it, for this is my body.

“And he took a cup of wine and gave thanks to God for it.”

This is the Bible as contained in the New Living Translation version.

The scene is also similarly recorded in 1 Corinthians 11:23-26.

Apart from the verses from the gospels and 1 Corinthians 11, we must relate that this was the Passover meal. And traditionally, the cup at the Passover meal contained wine during this Jewish festival.

Regardless of which version of the Bible one reads, or in whatever language, the accounts are consistently the same.

My wife and I were among Malaysian pilgrims who visited the Church of Cana, renewed our wedding vows and bought a bottle of wine there.

In fact, you don’t even need to go to Jerusalem to buy the wine anymore because it’s now sold online.

Jesus then and Jesus today are the same. If he had disapproved of wine, he wouldn’t have chosen to turn water into wine, especially as his first miracle.

The Bible is full of attributes on the goodness of wine – which is, essentially, just another form of liquor.

Christianity has never banned wine or liquor, though there are many references in the Bible frowning upon drunkenness and debauchery, which are regarded as sinful.

Of course, excessive drinking can lead to negative consequences for individuals, families and society. In fact, even without drinking excessively, drink-driving has become a deadly menace.

But consuming wine doesn’t necessarily mean getting intoxicated.

There is a difference.

Most churches in Malaysia use Ribena for Holy Communion, but it’s still a practice in many Catholic and Eastern Orthodox churches in other parts of the world to dip the bread in a chalice of wine during the Holy Communion ritual.

Some of these traditional churches even insist that sacramental wine be made naturally and derived and fermented only from grapes, sans extra ingredients. So that means 100% grape extract.

I’m speaking from experience, having visited such churches, I’m not reading from some source to fit my narrative.

Many Christians would echo my sentiments. One doesn’t need to be an expert in theology or schooled in comparative religions to vouch for this simple church practice.

There are even specific verses which encourage the drinking of wine, such as in 1 Timothy 5:23, where it says Paul advised Timothy to drink wine for medicinal purposes, and “stop drinking only water but use a little wine for the sake of your stomach and your frequent ailments”.

Psalm 104:14-15 paints a picture of how God has provided various types of vegetation for man and beast. “He makes grass grow for the cattle, and plants for people to cultivate – bringing forth food from the earth: wine that gladdens human hearts, oil to make their faces shine, and bread that sustains their hearts.” God provided these necessities for man to cultivate into three types of food: wine, bread, and oil. This verse iterates the reason that God gave grapes: to make wine.

But no matter how tempting, excessive food or beverage consumption is bad. That’s common sense no one needs to reference from holy scriptures.

Likewise, if we drink too much of that sugar-saturated bubble tea drink, we’d be harming our health even though no religion has forbidden consuming it. The point is, we need to exercise moderation.

Noah – the prophet recognised by Christians and Muslims – owned a vineyard but his excessiveness with wine led him astray, which is recorded in the Bible.

In Genesis 9:20, it states that “Noah, a man of the soil, was the first to plant a vineyard” but the drink got the better of him.

Wine has always played a big role in churches. In fact, visitors of churches in the Mediterranean will know these priests, popularly known as monks, make the best wines. Some in the Lerins Abbey, on a small island near Cannes, continue producing them.

These monks have been making wine since the Middle Ages, living in the monastery founded in 405 AD by Saint Honorat.

In fact, in medieval Europe, Benedictine monks were the biggest wine producers.

I have to figure out now how I can visit the church and show them a newspaper article on a Malaysian MP and purported Bible expert claiming the holy book bans drinking liquor.

I’m sure they’ll tell me drinking a little wine is harmless, though one who has little knowledge of a religion but presumes to be an expert is dangerous.

Perpetuating myths is also what theologian-proclaiming politicians are doing by dispensing judgement, especially distorted ones.

But no one – especially Christians – should continue grousing over this or turning it into a political issue for use in elections because the message is, those who are unaware of their actions must be forgiven.

The Bible is full of verses, too, on the importance of forgiveness for those who wronged Christians.

Today is Sunday, a ceremoniously holy day. Surely there are more important issues and concerns in life to contend with. A good meal with the family and a glass of wine should see the day through nicely, though.

Stay safe: This National Day, we need to remember not only our face masks when biking around but also our helmets.

Lives lost and families destroyed are everyday scenery here. And they’re all paid for the price of ignoring basic safety rules.

IT’S barely news that our politicians are cavalier about wearing helmets when riding motorcycles, especially in rural areas.

But let’s not pretend that only politicians from the government are culprits because bad examples proliferate in both sides of the divide. In fact, if there’s one thing that binds them all, it’s flouting the law.

Last week, former Transport Minister Anthony Loke Siew Fook said he had pictures of Umno leaders, including ex-prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, riding without a helmet.

Loke also claimed that Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (BN-Bagan Datuk), Datuk Seri Reezal Merican Naina Merican (BN-Kepala Batas) and Tan Sri Annuar Musa (BN-Ketereh) had done the same, showing several pictures as proof.

Barely after 24 hours later, MCA central committee member Datuk Chew Kok Woh showed the media top PKR and Amanah leaders on motorbikes without helmet. These included Amanah president Mohamad Sabu and PKR Secretary General Saifuddin Nasution.

Chew also posted pictures of DAP assemblyman Ng Sze Han on his motorbike without a helmet.

Many politicians – presently or formerly in government – seem to think that when they’re in villages, they can ride their motorbikes without helmets, just like their supporters. Granted, village trails aren’t thoroughfares, which is why these politicians think it’s excusable not to wear protective gear.

But none of these politicians and their village supporters are aware or care that more than 60% of motorcycle fatalities happen in rural settings.

This may be surprising, but it’s true that less fatalities are registered in the cities. However, these motorists in villages were neither drunk nor intoxicated.

Drink driving, which has led to fatal accidents, are emotional matters because they often involve people of different races and religions.

Ultimately, facts and figures speak for themselves. For a start, let’s remind ourselves of a few records achieved by our motorists.

Malaysia has the highest road accident death rate in Asean and the third highest in Asia. The World Health Organisation’s 2013 statistics portrayed Malaysia among the emerging countries with the riskiest roads after Thailand and South Africa.

Malaysia registered a death rate of 23 per 100,000 population. Based on these statistics against the estimated population of 30 million, 7,000 to 8,000 people in the country die on our roads every year. And more than 50% of road accident fatalities involve motorcyclists.

According to findings by the International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences (IATSS), the highest number of motorcycle fatalities occur in rural locations (61%), primary roads (62%) and straight road sections (66%).

“The majority are riders (89%), 16 to 20 years old (22.5%), and 90% of the motorcycles are privately owned.

“Of those involved in fatal accidents, 75% of the motorcyclists wear helmets, and 35% do not have proper licences.

“The highest number of fatalities by type of collision is ‘angular or side’ (27.5%).

“Only fatality data are used due to the severe underreporting of severe injuries (up to 600%) and slight injuries (up to 1400%).”

Although the study was done in 2012, the pattern has barely changed in recent years.

In 2019, it was reported that there were more than 280,000 road accidents recorded nationwide during the first six months of the year.

Bukit Aman Investigation and Traffic Enforcement director, Datuk Azisman Alias said that between January to June 2019,281,527 accidents were reported in the country. This number is a 2.5% increase from 2018, which saw 274,556 accidents in the same period.

Malaysian motorcyclists are the biggest culprits, and victims, too. They account for two-thirds of road crash fatalities and sadly, the majority are teenagers.

These are the ones who consider wearing helmets optional. Let’s not even talk about the faithful who travel to mosques for Friday prayers without road safety protection.

And it’s not uncommon to see motorcyclists with busted rear lights, too.

Then, there are the food deliverers who are notorious for beating traffic lights.

If comprehensive surveys are done at traffic lights, it’ll likely show that almost all food deliverers and many general motorcyclists, can’t obey simple traffic rules. They are not repeat offenders either, but routine ones.

The IATSS study was based on data collected and analysed from the police, government authorities, and national and international research institutes.

It found that fatal motorcyclist crashes mostly involve “passenger cars” (28%); motorcyclists are responsible for 50% of the collisions either by crashing singly (25%) or with other motorcyclists (25%). While male motorcyclists predominate (94% of fatalities), female motorcyclists aged 31 to 70, possessing “no licence” and not wearing helmets, account for a higher percentage than male motorcyclists.

The study recommends Malaysia acquire more motorcycle exposure data and establish an injury recording system and database based on hospital records.

“To reduce motorcycle fatalities, it first has to understand why young male motorcyclists are prone to fatal crashes in the evenings and on weekends on rural primary roads, especially on straight road sections.”

Well, it’s not too difficult to reason why these accidents occur in rural areas where street lighting is poor and trunk road conditions aren’t the best.

Of course, the villagers still refuse to wear helmets. In their logic, why would they need to wear a helmet for a coffee at the warung (food stall) or a spot to lepak (loaf)?

Besides, the Yang Berhormat who comes to the villages on his constituency visits, especially this National Day, won’t bother putting on one anyway.

With that said, put up the mini national flags on your bikes, by all means, but for goodness sakes, wear helmets, and face masks, too.

Stay safe, and Happy National Day.