On The Beat

By WONG CHUN WAI

FOR a brief moment, the crowd was clearly stunned. Even the Penang reporters covering the MCA dinner at the Esplanade on Friday night could not believe what Datuk Seri Ong Ka Ting had just said.  

The MCA president had told the crowd that this would be the last time he was contesting in the general election.  

With his youthful appearance, not many people could believe that the 51-year-old politician wanted to limit his political career.  

But Ong had begun his helm in the MCA by limiting the terms of the party president to only nine years or three terms. It was a dramatic move to ensure that a leader would not cling on to power forever.  

A strong advocate of party rejuvenation and giving new talents a chance, Ong wanted to make himself an example.  

Taking a jab at the opposition, he said, “In the opposition, a candidate can keep contesting until he is old” – an apparent reference to DAP veterans approaching their 70s.  

Ong was appointed party president in 2003 and retained his post in 2005. He has been Housing and Local Government Minister since 1999.  

He has also brought into the party’s fold many aides and researchers who are in their 30s and 40s, believing that they will introduce fresh directions and new ways of doing things.  

It is a bold but calculated move to ensure that the MCA remains relevant at a time when the voters have become younger and surely more demanding.  

In the United States, presidential hopeful Barack Obama is 47 years old and for many college-educated voters, he is their man.  

They see in him their call for change and his lack of experience an advantage as they shun the old politics of the establishment.  

His opponent in the Democratic Party is Hillary Clinton, 60, and should Republican John McCain make it to the White House, he would be 72 by then, making him the oldest president.  

Within the Barisan, there are also incumbent MPs, some in their 60s, who still find it difficult to retire.  

Some have been reluctant to announce their readiness to make way for younger candidates, hoping against hope that they would still be given another shot.  

A few seem to imply they are indispensable and that they will only be able to retain the seats for the Barisan Nasional, using anti-establishment sentiments as their argument.  

It is a problem that Barisan chairman Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has to deal with in every general election.  

Worse, he cannot interfere in the running of component parties, where some of their party chiefs, in their 70s, put their names on their lists. And they themselves cannot hear the loud voices from the people that they should go.  

Shockingly and hypocritically, they talk about bringing in “new blood” and of their “unfinished work”. Of course, it is always for the country and the people. Haven’t we heard that before?  

Used to the perks and power that go with the job of an elected representative, many find it hard to let go.  

Using all sorts of tactics, they get their supporters to hold press conferences to announce their support for them, ambush their party bosses at airports, send their wives to meet their bosses’ spouses and some even break down and weep shamelessly.  

But this is part of the melodrama that builds up during every election, where politicians so often put their ambition first before ideals and principles.  

It is the same in the opposition, where statements have been issued against their party leaders and tantrums thrown because they have not been picked to contest the elections.  

And of course, they, too, say that their entry into politics is to fight for justice, against abuses of power and to strive for accountability. Never personal glory, naturally.  

In a survey conducted among young people in the United States, many said they could not recall then presidential-hopeful Bill Clinton appearing in a talk show, wearing dark shades, playing Heartbreak Hotel on his saxophone.  

Clinton’s cool appearance won him support from the young and minority groups, as with Obama now. But that was 16 years ago and now, the young do not even know the show’s host Arsenio Hall, who remarked, “It is good to see a Democrat blow something beside the election.”  

In this age of YouTube and Facebook, Malaysia is not doing justice if we still have to have those from Jurassic Park lead us.  

By the way, it was a blockbuster movie and it was 15 years ago. Never heard of it, our young will tell us.  

In short, political and economic stability will always be the priority of the middle class. The street protests may be about the right to demonstrate, but is also the quickest way to lose votes. 

For Middle Class Malaysia, these protests equate to traffic disruption, loss of business, inconvenience and chaos. 

An opinion poll conducted by the International Islamic University has revealed that the cost of living, social issues, the crime rate and illegal immigrants are issues that worry Malaysian voters the most. 

Despite loud criticism by the opposition against the leadership ahead of the polls, Malaysians are generally satisfied with the leadership. Only 1% of the 2,930 respondents polled in 13 states took issue with it. 

But the food bill issue, however, is not just a Malaysian issue. It has become a global issue. The Singapore Straits Times of Feb 4 front-paged Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's call to Singaporeans to adjust. 

He said the concerns of Singaporeans had been heard and were being addressed, but Singaporeans needed to work together to tackle the fears. 

The opposition here in Malaysia has promised to lower the prices of essential goods, and even of petrol, if it captures the government. 

But what has driven prices up? The global price of crude oil is at a record high and this has pushed up transportation charges; the drought in Australia and snowstorms in China have affected food production; and farmers have dumped food crops for plants that cater to petrol-substitute ethanol. 

China and India, which have become more affluent, are consuming more, with food producers preferring the two gigantic markets. 

Still, even in China, overall inflation is running at a 10-year high – around 6.9% in November year-on-year with pork, a staple meat, spiking to 60% year-on-year.  

Worldwide, the financial markets are in turbulence, and the United States, the world’s largest consumer market, is heading into a recession, if it is not already in one. 

Companies listed on major stock markets, which rely heavily on the US market, find their prices dropping massively. 

Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has taken early steps to plug the holes. These include the setting up of the National Price Council, which has announced a national stockpile of essential goods, such as rice and cooking oil, to ensure that prices and supply remain stable at all times. 

The council, chaired by the Prime Minister himself, will monitor, advice and oversee the Government’s price policy, competitive market structures and the efficiency of subsidy schemes. 

Not many people shared Pak Lah’s agriculture policy, which he mooted when he took over the leadership, as we are so used to fast-paced industrialisation. 

Now, he has been proven right. “Agflation”, referring specifically to rises in prices of agricultural commodities, has suddenly become a buzzword. 

Last week, he did justice in ending the decades of uncertainty faced by 913 farmers in Perak, giving them 30-year leases to the 2,903ha land they had been toiling on. 

In Kuala Kluang and Kanthan, these farmers produce some 60,000kg of vegetables a day for the folks in the Klang Valley, while in Ladang Bikam and Coldstream New Village, the mangoes, papayas, starfruit and guavas they harvest are exported to Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai and Europe. 

It is a recognition of these farmers, who make our lives easier and better with these fresh supplies of greens to our markets. 

It may seem a cliché, but Malaysians really are much luckier than many others. The cost of living is certainly almost the lowest, but the standard of living are among the highest, in the region. These two terms are often mistakenly used by many. 

Subsidies are provided for the people, from fuel to flour to education, which now make up RM40bil of the bill, which for Malaysians have become the norm.  

In other countries, including Singapore and Thailand, petrol prices often fluctuate, depending on market prices of crude oil. Again, not many Malaysian motorists are aware of this. 

It must be noted that 30% of the items used to measure inflation are priced-controlled or subsidised. More importantly, the Malaysian economy has remained healthy, helped by revenue from oil, while continuing efforts to reduce the budget deficit are on track, and external reserves remain healthy. 

Crime, as expected, ranked high on the survey. Some of the measures taken by the Government may not take off immediately, but short- and middle-term actions have been taken. 

On the Government’s part, RM8bil has been allocated to fight crime, which includes the purchase of a high-technology integrated communications system, 3,000 patrol cars and 4,000 motorcycles.  

The Government has also approved the recruitment of 60,000 police personnel over the next five years. 

The fight for the votes in the elections will be about which political party can assure the Malaysian Middle Class that it can deliver the bread and butter. 

On The Beat

By WONG CHUN WAI

IT doesn’t look like it will happen in Malaysia for a long, long time. The world is currently glued to the US presidential elections where the front-runners in the primaries include an African-American and a woman.  

The Americans do not care if their candidate is black, yellow or white as long as he or she is the right person. Their supporters comprise Americans of all races and gender. Throughout the campaign, candidates have so far managed to stay clear from race and gender. 

More important, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, both Democrats, have debated in a civil and intelligent manner, focusing on substantial issues.  

Young Malaysians following the race must have surely asked when our politicians would live up to such qualities.  

For a start, those who have overstayed must know when to leave.  

Most of the voters are finding it difficult to swallow the argument put up by these leaders that they still need time to carry out their work.  

Surely, they can’t expect us to believe them after holding on to their posts for decades.  

Used to walking the corridors of power and enjoying the prestige and perks that come with their positions, many find it hard to be like us, ordinary Malaysians, again.  

The thought of not seeing their names and pictures in the newspapers must be difficult to fathom.  

By clinging on to their posts, it is also an insult to their party members because the impression, which they like to create, is that no one else is suitable to take over.  

No one else seems good enough to fill their shoes. You find these politicians on both sides of the political divide; they seem to be there forever. 

Then there are those who have had their chances. They had served in various capacities but had to quit in the most controversial situations.  

Now in their 60s, the age when most Malaysians are thinking of spending time with their grandchildren and watching the sunset with their loved ones, they dream of staging a comeback.  

Some of these figures do not even know how to surf the Internet and have no inkling of what young people are saying about them in cyberspace.  

They probably assume that the new voters, like their grandchildren, have forgotten the trouble they had landed themselves into, or the huge embarrassment they had caused their party.  

Their renewed ambitions must be difficult for the younger leaders in the party, especially those in their 40s and 50s, who have worked faithfully and are waiting in the wings.  

Then there are one or two Mentris Besar or Chief Ministers.  

It’s amazing how some of them seem to assume that their respective states are their personal fiefdoms.  

They show their displeasure at even the slightest suggestion that they ought to contest a parliamentary seat. 

They lobby to remain at their posts but then advise the other state assemblymen that they must abide by what their party bosses tell them to do.  

Also, there are those who still continue to play the race card, in this age and time. 

At their party conferences each year, they play to the gallery by projecting themselves as the communal heroes.  

But during the general election, they shamelessly become the true Malaysian leaders we dream of. 

They greet their voters in Malay, English, Mandarin and Tamil; and if they can speak all these languages fluently, they would do so.  

But for the rest of the five years until the next general election, they would insist only on one language for us.  

Never mind if we all know that they send their children to boarding schools in England or Australia. 

Some, it is said, have homes there, too.  

Of course, they are upset if we do not send our children to national schools, questioning our loyalty to the country.  

Suddenly, all these languages are used in posters, bunting and advertisements, and you wonder why Malaysia cannot be like this every day. 

Why can’t we embrace such Malaysian features and why must multi-culturalism be acceptable only during election campaigns?  

Such an unusual degree of tolerance and flexibility seems almost unbelievable. 

Even PAS is prepared to stop talking about an Islamic state during the elections but throughout the next five years, we can be sure they will tell us how certain principles cannot be compromised on religious grounds.  

Politicians are also busy visiting places of worship and meeting religious leaders, including those of other faiths.  

Yet we know we will continue to grapple with various bureaucratic problems relating to faith issues because these same politicians will struggle to stand up for the rights of all citizens once the election season is over.  

Fortunately, there are many who take their positions as MPs and assemblymen seriously. They work hard, help their constituents and speak with decorum.  

They are a credit to their party and the people who voted them in. 

How we wish we could have elections more regularly instead of just once every four or five years.  

But hey, good things don’t happen every day.  

Let’s enjoy all the attention while we still can. 

It’s good to tell the politicians what we want once every four or five years and do our best to hold them to their promises – every single day. 

ON THE BEAT
By WONG CHUN WAI

CREDIBLE candidates – that’s the key phrase in the coming general election. That means those whose names have been tainted should be dropped as contenders.

We know who they are with their off-colour and controversial statements, often racist and sexist, but they would probably believe it is their right to be retained.

Their disregard for parliamentary decorum in the Dewan Rakyat and inability to be civil has shamed their party and surely their constituents. To put it bluntly – they have no class.

Then, there are one or two who have made news headlines for the wrong reasons, simply by flouting their wealth.

Their outrageous behaviour, including those of their supporters, have made many Malaysians question if they have any right to keep their Yang Berhormat (Right Honourable) titles.

In short, Malaysians would like to see them retired off in the coming polls. If not all, at least most of them, and it would not be wrong to suggest that it would be the wish list of many Malaysians.

There is no reason why the likes of Port Klang assemblyman Datuk Zakaria Deros, Datuk Bung Moktar Radin (BN-Kinabatangan) and Datuk Mohd Said Yusuf (BN-Jasin) should still be retained.

Their constant appearance in the Roll of Shame for 2007 is sufficient reason to have them removed; surely Umno has enough talent to fill their places.

Some Umno officials have admitted their dilemma – some of these jesters have political clout at the division level in their parliamentary constituencies.

Given the rural or semi-rural set-up of their areas, they have performed well for their voters but the urban voters, who read the newspapers, on the other hand, are not amused.

Given the structure of Umno, where division chiefs are powerful figures who can decide the fate of party leaders, these culprits have often escaped with a slap on the wrist.

Take Datuk Badruddin Amiruldin (BN-Jerai). He had to retract his remarks at the Dewan Rakyat twice last year, including attacking Karpal Singh (DAP-Bukit Glugor) who is on a wheelchair “as a punishment from God” and for using a vulgar word.

He provoked a woman MP by asking “what type of a woman would last with someone like the MP from Batu Gajah” but he holds a powerful position in Umno as the deputy permanent chairman of the annual Umno general assembly. A deputy speaker, that is.

Last year at the party conference, he irked Malaysians again with his “tunnel” joke about the tight skirts of Air Asia stewardesses,

Like others, his supporters have defended his record and, in all fairness to Badruddin, he is essentially a very nice person whose sense of humour sometimes goes off tangent. He speaks a smattering of Hokkien and his popularity with his Chinese voters is well known.

He is unlikely to be dropped but he has to be more cautious of his statements in Parliament. Still, he is palatable to most, even his critics.

But there are some who owe their voters plenty of explanation.

Syed Hood Syed Edros (BN-Parit Sulong) suggested that all crosses in missionary schools should be removed and church influence in these schools be stopped – it must rank as one of the most unacceptable remarks.

He later backtracked, realising his mistake, but he has lost plenty of goodwill and respect.

During the debate, he was supported by Datuk Mohd Aziz (BN-Sri Gading), where it was alleged that some schools were open during Hari Raya.

Surely they must be aware that Hari Raya is a gazetted holiday and that the claim has no basis.

The Opposition, too, has its share of controversial elected representatives. Lawyer Karpal Singh has a record of name calling, shouting at his fellow MPs as lembu (cows) and bodoh (stupid).

His detractors say he is politically shrewd and ensures he makes the news with these political fights.

The colourful DAP veteran, who is actually a soft-spoken and polite person, has been blasted in the past for poor constituency work but given the anti-establishment sentiment in Penang, he is likely to be fielded and re-elected.

Then, there is Abdul Fatah Harun (PAS-Rantau Panjang), who described divorcees as gatal (randy), saying that based on his observations at gatherings and parties, he noticed that single mothers were not sad about their divorces.

If he is picked again to contest, it would be a non-issue in his conservative constituency and his voters probably do not even know of this controversy, which was debated mostly in the English newspapers.

The fact that he is from PAS would be sufficient enough for his backers.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has sent an early message – he wants only credible candidates in the elections.

Over the coming weeks, those who put the Barisan in a tight spot last year can be assured that they won’t be asked to join in the campaigning, let alone contest.

COMMENT
By WONG CHUN WAI

THE campaign is already in full swing in Penang, which is set to be the most intensely-fought state in the coming general election.  

At the Rifle Range flats, where over 8,000 votes are at stake for the Bukit Bendera parliamentary seat, which had an electorate of 65,126 in the 2004 general election, Barisan Nasional and Parti Keadilan Rakyat have put up banners and flags.  

It is unlikely that the DAP would give way to PKR to contest in this predominantly Chinese constituency. The DAP has always put its stake here but PKR adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is visiting the flats today.  

Buntings announcing his visit have been put up while ironically, the DAP rocket is missing at the flats, which the party regards as its territory.  

At Penang Road and Macalister Road, the DAP flags lined the two streets while at the Penang Chinese Town Hall, a huge crowd gathered to listen to the party leaders talk about the Hindraf issue on Saturday.  

But the centre of attraction was DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, who is said to be leading the party's challenge in Penang.  

A big screen had to put up outside the hall to accommodate the listeners in the state, where urban voters are said to be in an anti-establishment mood.  

But Barisan isn’t taking all these salvoes quietly. MCA deputy president Datuk Seri Chan Kong Choy is in Penang today to meet party leaders and supporters, where its elected representatives are known for their service work.  

On Saturday, Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop showed up at the Methodist Boys School, where the Penang Christian Association for Relief had raised RM350,000 for seven organisations.  

The stakes are high as Barisan holds 38 state seats in Penang: Umno (14), Gerakan (13), MCA (nine) and MIC (two). The DAP and PAS have one each.  

Barisan also has eight parliamentary seats: Umno (4), Gerakan (3) and MCA (1). The DAP has four while Keadilan has one. 

The fight in Penang is for more than just numbers – this is also the home state of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.  

Barisan has stepped up its campaign by telling Penangites to reject Guan Eng, saying he was from Malacca and an outsider.  

Last week, state Barisan Youth chief Huan Cheng Guan said Penang was not a hotel for outsiders, like Guan Eng, who could “check in and check out” as they pleased.  

He said there was no reason for Penangites to opt for such politicians as there was a large pool of qualified local candidates.  

A DAP official retorted, saying that even the top Gerakan leaders in Penang were not “Penang originals”.  

He cited the example of Bukit Bendera MP Datuk Seri Chia Kwang Chye, who like state executive councillor Teng Chang Yeow, is from Johor while Dr Teng Hock Nan, another Gerakan leader, was born in Kedah. Teng’s other brother, Chang Khim, is a DAP state assemblyman in Selangor.  

But even as the decibels have gone up, there are many uncertainties in the state. No one is sure if acting Gerakan president and Chief Minister Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon is contesting a state seat.  

He has refused to answer persistent queries from the media but party adviser Datuk Seri Dr Lim Keng Yaik has suggested that Dr Koh could stay in the state. Certainly as acting president, Dr Koh can have much say in where he wants to go although the prerogative is with Pak Lah.  

There is also a precedent – former Gerakan president Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu remained as Chief Minister. Even when Keng Yaik took over the party leadership, he was a Perak state executive councillor.  

But times have changed. It would be awkward, if not a political disadvantage, to be left out of the Cabinet.  

The fate of the MCA state assemblymen is also not clear. Except for Ooi Chuan Aik and Tan Teik Cheng, the rest of the seven MCA men are three-term elected representatives, who must give way to new faces under party rules.  

While the senior assemblymen may have their base of loyal voters, regarded as “goodwill votes,” and essential in a tightly-fought race, fresh faces will also give Barisan an edge.  

The MCA needs more educated, more qualified and more credible leaders to emerge although the present crop of working-class style assemblymen have earned a reputation for being service-oriented.  

For the opposition, the DAP-PKR electoral pact has been slow and leaders from both sides have said, off the record, that the process has been “agonising.”  

Both sides, believing that the anti-establishment mood was going to result in a swing, are holding their cards tight to their chests and unwilling to compromise, believing this is their time.  

Despite the drumbeat, the DAP has also been reluctant to declare a fight for the state government. It has presumably learnt from the bitter experiences of the past.  

The gerrymandering process, which weighs favourably for the semi-rural areas on the mainland, has made the job impossible for the DAP – these seats are safely in the hands of Umno.  

This is a point the MCA, Gerakan and MIC have emphasised to Chinese and Indian voters – you may vote your communities out of the government.  

On The Beat with Wong Chun Wai

THE Indian community is shrinking, that’s a fact. If the MIC remains the third biggest component party, it has more to do with history and its partnership with Umno and the MCA in fighting for independence.  

The community now stands at 1.8 million, roughly about 8% of the country’s 26 million population, down from 10% before.  

The number of registered foreign workers is two million and it wouldn’t be wrong to state that there are now more foreigners, mostly Indonesians, than Indians, and that’s not even counting the sizeable illegal workers.  

But the community has never been so split. There are many grievances in the community, with pent-up frustrations of what they perceive as marginalisation from the economy.  

The MIC, especially its president Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu, has been on the receiving end, with sections of Indians charging that the party has not done enough. They also want Samy Vellu to go, saying he has over-stayed.  

The party’s fate has become even more complicated with rivalry within the party, with forces aligned to former deputy president Datuk S. Subramaniam also wanting Samy Vellu out.  

To make matters worse, other smaller Indian parties are also fighting for the community’s affection.  

Although the People’s Progressive Party claims to be multi-racial, it is essentially dominated by Indians.  

PPP president Datuk M. Kayveas has made no bones of how he feels about Samy Vellu and their feuds are well known. It has been reported that the two squared it off at a recent Barisan Nasional meeting.  

Then, there is the Indian Progressive Front (IPF), which has tried for years to be accepted into the Barisan, but has been stopped by the MIC.  

It has remained loyal to the Barisan, with its ability to reach out to the poorest in the community, and its president Tan Sri M.G. Pandithan recently buried the hatchet with Samy Vellu.  

That olive branch has, however, earned the wrath of its members who felt betrayed; for years, they have fought against Samy Vellu within the pro-government mechanism despite being kept out of the coalition.  

Last week, it was reported that the IPF is now split into two factions – one led by an ailing Pandithan and the other by the former secretary-general K. Panjamurai. The latter now leads the newly formed IPF Bersatu.  

Panjamurai said his group would support the Barisan in the coming elections and would back Subramaniam and Kayveas.  

Then, there are the Hindraf leaders who have proven their ability in organising the community and getting thousands of Indians into the streets to protest.  

Their methods may be questioned – and the cost has been high as they are now in Kamunting – but no one should scoff at their ability to rally the Indians.  

But the story doesn’t end here. Businessman Datuk K.S. Nallakarupan, once an ally of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, has formed Democratic Indian United Party. He’s out to face off with Parti Keadilan Rakyat.  

Then, there are Indian leaders in the PKR and the DAP. It is no secret that they, too, are counting the number of Indian candidates to be fielded and there is already grumbling ahead of the polls. It is a time bomb.  

But the bottom line is that there are no Indian majority seats in this country. Any Indian party depends on the Malay or Chinese votes to win and that’s the reality.  

The MIC has nine parliamentary seats and 19 state seats. They hold positions because the leadership is committed to power sharing among the various ethnic groups.  

But the Hindraf issue, which has gone down badly with Malay voters, can determine the voting trend for the MIC seats. If the Indians themselves decide to be anti-establishment by voting against the Barisan, then it could be a self-inflicted wound. Or triple blow, if the Chinese join in as well.  

Some survey findings have revealed that the crucial Malay voters are angered by the street protest and call for the British royalty to intervene, and this sentiment may work against the MIC candidates.  

Unwittingly, the Indians may join in and vote against their own MIC representatives too. The findings also revealed that the Malay votes, except in certain PAS areas like Kelantan and Kedah, are safely with Umno.  

In short, the Malay votes for Umno is solid despite what the urban middle class may feel about certain issues.  

That’s the political reality. As for the Indian community, they are at a crossroads, with the elections just weeks ahead. 

Following the recent bullish run, helped by oil palm plantation stocks, Malaysians had hoped the run would continue ahead of the general election and possibly a Chinese New Year rally. 

There was talk of second and third liner stocks following the blue chips, where ordinary punters would make money from Umno-linked counters and there being a trickle down effect. 

But as the Dow Jones Industrial Average collapsed, the tumbling effect hit the world. When the United States is hit, no one is spared – that’s the reality. 

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that even the Bank of China appeared increasingly likely to report a large write-down on its investments in US mortgage securities, the result of the sub-prime crisis where huge loans were made to borrowers with weak credit. 

The Fed move – described by many analysts as an “emergency measure” to stem panic and fear sweeping world markets – came after US President George W. Bush announced a stimulus package of US$150bil (RM490bil) for the US economy which was fast sliding into, if not already in, recession.  

For the small Malaysian investors, the question is what should they do in these uncertain and turbulent times? Should they take advantage of the rebound and sell out? Or should they see the rebound as an opportunity to pick up under-valued stocks? 

All eyes will be on Wall Street again tonight (Malaysian time) when the US markets open for trading. When the Fed announced the 0.75% interest rate cut on Tuesday, Wall Street actually ended the session down 128 points. 

It fell more than 300 points during intra day trading on Wednesday but rebounded strongly to end by nearly 300 points. It was a roller coaster ride no doubt. 

The bulls and the bears are still fighting it out. The bulls argue that the problems of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis have already been factored into the market – that the big US banks have already made provisions for losses from their involvement in the sub-prime debacle; and that under the Bush economic stimulus, the hefty rate cut plus the likelihood of another cut when the Fed meets next week will help the US economy to avoid a recession. 

The bears suspect the Fed emergency rate cut shows that the US economy and stock market are in far worse shape than officially acknowledged; that the US government is running out of bullets to fight the impending recession, and that the market turbulence has still to run its course. 

If you have been watching the CNN Richard Quest coverage of the World Economic Forum in Davos, you would have observed how divided the experts are over the state of the US economy.  

A strong recovery over the next couple of trading sessions on Wall Street would be a great relief to the US Government and the bulls; while further falls in the indices would rattle already battered nerves. 

Given this uncertain climate, caution should be the guiding principle for Malaysian stock market punters. 

For punters who did not take advantage of the local market run-up in early January, it’s too late to take profits. For those who are staring at some losses, it’s probably the wrong time to sell. As the saying goes: “You don’t make a loss if you don’t sell.” 

But stockbrokers are telling investors that there are some buying opportunities on Bursa Malaysia. If you are not worried about the volatility that is likely to be a feature on the Malaysian and world stock markets in 2008, and take a medium-term view of three to five years, there are currently some good buys on the Bursa. 

Another point to note: We must make a distinction between the volatility in the stock market and the broader economy. 

It is important to understand that stock market turbulence is very much the result of external factors, emanating from the United States. The US crisis is largely a banking and financial crisis. 

The Malaysian economy remains strong and its fundamentals are largely intact. The Government’s finances are strong with rising revenue from oil and income taxes. The Government’s commitment towards reducing the budget deficit remains on track. The country’s external reserves are very healthy.  

Also, inflation remains manageable. At 2%, it is much lower than inflation in many countries including China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia. 

It is a point which many ordinary Malaysians, some used to a pampered life with subsidies, do not realise. The rising cost of goods, unfortunately, is a global trend due to escalating oil prices and the shortage of raw materials. It is essentially out of the Government’s control. 

As Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak pointed out on Wednesday, 30% of items used to measure inflation were mainly price-controlled goods while the others were heavily subsidised items, like fuel. 

The year 2008 will definitely be a more challenging year than 2007 both for the stock market and the economy.  

What can be said is that the Malaysian economy is in a far better position than most to meet the challenges ahead.  

COMMENT BY WONG CHUN WAI 

DATUK Seri Chia Kwang Chye always make it a point to ask his host, whenever he is invited to a function in Kuala Lumpur, what they really mean when the dress code is stated as “smart casual”. 

“I ask them whether smart casual Penang-style or KL-style. In KL, they expect you to put on a jacket with no tie when the dress code states smart casual but in Penang, casual means short-sleeved shirt or even just a T-shirt,” he said recently, adding that he preferred the much simpler lifestyle on the island. 

The Deputy Information Minister, who is regarded as a possible candidate to be the next Chief Minister, is well aware of the expectations of Penangites. 

The islanders expect their representatives to be humble, simple, outspoken, hardworking and be on call almost 24 hours for them. It wouldn’t be wrong to say that politicians in Penang, especially in Chinese-predominant areas, are the hardest working politicians in the country. 

Pengkalan Kota state assemblyman Lee Hack Teik travels around in his working-class constituency on his motorcycle. Once an anti-establishment area, the area, located within the inner city, has become the stronghold of the MCA. 

His voters call him up for everything – from a leaking roof to writing a letter to a government department. But no task is too small for this bespectacled rotund leader. 

Komtar state assemblyman Datuk Lim Gim Soon is not known to be an intellectual and neither does he pretend to be one. But he has built a solid reputation for his efficient services. He has a sub-service centre, mostly in coffeeshops, in almost every street in his constituency. 

It’s the same with Bagan Jermal state assemblyman Ooi Chuan Aik, dubbed the Michael Chong of Penang, who could end up defending his seat against Bagan DAP Member of Parliament Lim Hock Seng, who is speculated to be giving way for party secretary-general Lim Guan Eng to lead the battle in Penang. 

Hock Seng, a contractor, has a record that can match those of the MCA – he drives his own excavator to fill up potholes and makes sure he is among the pallbearers at funerals. His critics say he is living on his past reputation but in Penang, where legend seems to thrive, these tales have helped him. 

While the DAP is not hiding its ambition in Penang this elections, the party has stopped short of declaring its wish to capture the state as it had done previously. 

There is a painful past – in 1995, the DAP declared it was ready for power, asking the voters to “Try Five Years,” playing on the sentiments that Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon was a weak politician, who was submissive to Umno. 

The DAP asked the voters to support DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang as the “Chief Minister With Power”, with huge cut-outs of Robocop, a popular movie then of a robotic character, to project Kit Siang as the protector of the weak. But the Barisan hit back with “Die Five Years”, saying Robocop was a killing machine. 

Huge crowds attended the DAP ceramahs but when the ballots were counted, Dr Koh easily defeated Kit Siang in Tanjung Bungah by 7,487 votes. The thunderous support for Kit Siang’s rhetoric turned out to be deceptive, proving how unpredictable Penangites could be, and how their constant criticism of government policies did not necessarily translate into votes. 

Kit Siang, who is almost certain to defend his Ipoh Timur seat, started his foray into Penang in 1986 when he wrested the Tanjung parliamentary seat from Dr Koh by 4,690 votes. Besides winning the Kampung Kolam state seat, he also helped the party win nine other state seats in the Tanjung One battle. 

By 1990, the DAP launched its Tanjung Two campaign with the DAP strongman knocking off the then Chief Minister Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu in Padang Kota by 706 votes. Kit Siang retained his Tanjung parliamentary seat by a majority of 17,479 votes. That was not all, the DAP won 14 seats, denying Barisan its two-thirds majority.  

It was just three seats short of forming the next state government. 

The harsh outcome of the DAP’s Tanjung Three bid for power in 1995 was that it only managed to win one state seat despite the huge resources channelled into the campaign. 

Fast forward 2008 – it is 13 years since the debacle. Younger people have taken over the DAP leadership and those who were involved in the 1995 polls have learnt the bitterness of their mistakes. 

This time around, no one is making big claims. In fact, no one, including Guan Eng, wants to talk about where he is contesting. 

Even Dr Koh seems to be extra secretive these days. In an ironic manner, he asked the press why they wanted to know if he was moving to a parliamentary seat. Tan Sri, it’s our job to ask. The voters want to know. 

There is also a difference to the 1995 fight. This time, the DAP is depending on the Parti Keadilan Rakyat to deliver the Malay votes and possibly one or two state seats, as farfetched as it may sound.  

After all, this is the Prime Minister’s home state and the mainland is where most of the Malay voters are located. 

The DAP is hoping the anti-establishment sentiment will swing in their favour and, by not talking about winning, the votes may just tip in their favour. 

In a state where voters want to have the best of both worlds – keeping the Barisan and the Opposition – the DAP is hoping for a bonus. But it’s still early days and Penangites are likely to keep the opposing sides in suspense. Until the ballot boxes are opened, no one can predict the outcome.  

And certainly, no one can take the Penang voters casually when it comes to voting. That would be the smartest thing to do for any candidate hoping to stand in the island state.